Caio Marchesani played a pivotal role in developing the Oil Analytics (OA) trading framework, transforming it into a Bloomberg data provider for the energy sector. OA offered a comprehensive suite of services ranging from corporate advisory to derivative and equity trading.
In the domain of derivative trading, OA’s analyses were powered by a proprietary algorithmic model, predicting inflection points in futures and swaps markets. This involved strategic interventions by refineries in response to price movements, ensuring market balance.
Leveraging High-Performance Computing, OA gained a crucial edge—access to model outputs before refineries, allowing clients to pre-empt the refining system and yielding uncorrelated returns with reduced volatility. OA employed rigorous refinery and petrochemical (petchem) modeling to identify fundamental trades, focusing on their role at the interface between upstream supply and consumer demand.
The economics of these interactions dictated short-term crude/feedstock demand and product supply, leading OA to dedicate substantial resources to modeling the oil supply chain. This involved two distinct approaches: Zonal Modeling, which aggregated refinery/petchem capacity to reflect typical operations in a supply zone, and Local Modeling, which focused on individual refineries/petchems to calculate Supply and Demand balances.
In equity trading, OA’s analysis included advanced company profitability forecasts, utilising an asset-based modeling approach. The team’s extensive background in Oil Majors and US investment banks equipped them to provide valuable insights into company exposure modeling and strategic assessments, offering a unique advantage. Beyond trading, OA provided corporate advisory services, drawing on global investment expertise in oil and gas assets. This encompassed a wide array of services, from petrochemical investments to refinery investments and multibillion-dollar M&A activities. OA’s services, including full refinery master planning and corporate strategy assessments, allowed clients to capitalise on the team’s vast expertise.
Employing a rigorous scouting methodology, OA ranked oil projects by capital efficiency, aiding in evaluating and advising on participation in existing investments. For grassroots investments, OA utilised sophisticated models to explore potential areas, such as additional process units at refineries or merging companies based on synergies. In summary, OA’s multifaceted approach combined advanced modeling, strategic insights, and extensive industry experience, providing clients with a comprehensive toolkit for navigating and optimising their investments in the dynamic energy sector.