Articles by Caio Marchesani on quantitative finance, trading and volatility, macroeconomics, engineering, and building the Acai Berry Foods wellness brand.
The difference between betting on direction and betting on a spread, how the risk management differs in kind, what kills each approach, and why most professional books end up doing both.
A short note on the Fed’s January 2025 hold at 4.25 to 4.5 per cent: what Powell said about banks and crypto, why Bitcoin’s 2.7 per cent bounce is noise, and what actually matters next.
Holding Bitcoin and Ethereum together: how much diversification you really get, why the correlation rises in a crash, what to do about it, and Python to plot it over time.
A worked example in Python: load daily Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, convert them to returns, run the Pearson correlation with scipy, and read the result properly.
How correlation is measured, where the well-known relationships come from, what it is used for in a portfolio, and the ways it misleads: it drifts, it depends on horizon, it rises in a crisis.
Why the same equations describe particles in a fluid and asset prices: the random walk, volatility as a diffusion coefficient, the square-root-of-time rule, and geometric Brownian motion.
What the average true range measures, how Wilder’s smoothing works, and the four things I use it for: stops, position size, judging breakouts and setting realistic targets.
A real 30-day Bitcoin call priced at $2,500: backing the implied volatility out of Black-Scholes with Newton’s method in Python, and what the annualised number actually means.
The December 2024 Fed cut came with hawkish guidance and Bitcoin fell from 108,000 dollars to below 99,000. Why that looks like an interim top, what would prove it wrong, and what to watch.
What implied volatility is, why it has to be solved for rather than read off, how Newton-Raphson backs it out of the Black-Scholes formula, and what traders do with it.
