How refinery margins work: the 3-2-1 crack spread explained
The 3-2-1 crack spread explained with real futures prices: the formula, a worked example, what it leaves out, its seasonal pattern and how it is hedged.
Articles
Articles by Caio Marchesani on quantitative finance, trading and volatility, macroeconomics, engineering, and building the Acai Berry Foods wellness brand.
What açaí actually is, and what it isn’t
Açaí nutrition, plainly: a fatty fruit with little sugar of its own, what human studies show, why ORAC scores mislead, and the UK rules on superfood.
Where açaí comes from: the supply chain from the Amazon to London
How açaí gets from a palm in Pará to a bowl in London: the harvest season, the 24-hour window, pulp grades, the Chagas safety step and frozen export.
The boring half of Acai Berry Foods
Caio Marchesani on the finance side of Acai Berry Foods: why a busy shop can still lose money, the numbers worth watching, and what changed between London and Dubai.
What quantitative finance actually is, and what AI changes about it
Caio Marchesani on quantitative finance from the inside: the energy models at Oil Analytics, the systematic rules at Optima Cap, why risk is the whole job, and what machine learning changes.
What I learned about payments at TF Pay: be boring on purpose
Caio Marchesani on moving a remittance business towards a technology-led payments model, what sits behind a one-tap transfer, and why dependability is the only edge that matters in payments.
Engineering, then markets, then açaí
Caio Marchesani on how an engineering degree, years in markets and an açaí business add up to one habit: write the model down, decide the risk first, measure honestly.
Taking Acai Berry Foods to Dubai: change the surface, keep the core
What it took to open Acai Berry Foods in Dubai: research before fit-out, a menu adjusted rather than rewritten, borrowed credibility to get the first visit, and the rule that made it work.
Why Acai Berry Foods started in London, and what the launch taught me
Why London was the right first market for an açaí business, the decisions that mattered at the launch, site, design, product and local work, and the three lessons that still shape the shops.
Relative value trading vs directional trading, and what each one teaches you about risk
The difference between betting on direction and betting on a spread, how the risk management differs in kind, what kills each approach, and why most professional books end up doing both.